Will China Attack India

I came across an article where a defense expert claims that China may attack India in 2012.


I posted the above link on facebook and my good friend Rohit http://rohitsammeta.blogspot.com

found the reasoning given in the article as absurd. Although I do not agree with the author of the above article in its entirety, but at the same time I do see a Chinese attack on India as a real possibility.  In the following, I have tried to capture my thoughts on the same.

Lets take the pieces one at a time.

China has long harbored ambitions to control its south west borders which include countries like Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal and parts of India, specially Arunachal Pradesh. There are multiple reasons for this apart from the general paranoia that Chinese Government has.

The primary reason why China wants a complete control of these borders is the complex interplay between communism, democracy and Tibetan philosophy.

Tibet is extremely important to China for many reasons. For one, it is a matter of pride. Tibetan dynasties have in the past defeated Chinese dynasties. Complete control and a cultural genocide of Tibet will help avenge for the past defeats of Chinese empire.

Secondly, in the modern context, it is important for China to completely control Tibet. A free thinking Tibet will always be a house to democratic beliefs and freedom of thoughts because of the modern teachings of the Dalai Lama. This will not remain confined to Tibet. Similar beliefs will permeate through other parts of China and can become a big movement for democracy, human rights and freedom. It will be a question mark on Chinese communism.It may even become a question mark on a unified China.

How can China prevent this from happening? By completely isolating Tibet and continuing the cultural genocide that it has been doing since the exile of Dalai Lama.  This isolation will never be completely successful, till Tibet has porous borders with regions with democratic beliefs. This includes Nepal(abolished monarchy last year), Bhutan(King has declared he will abdicate the throne), Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. By controlling these regions, China will be able to isolate Tibet from the democratic world. The biggest hurdle for China in achieving this is a prosperous India. India is home to Tibetan government in exile. Indian army is the defence force for Bhutan. India has good relations with Nepal. Most importantly, Arunachal Pradesh in India is house to the Monastery in which Rinmpoche lives. After the current Dalai Lama, since the Chinese government has abducted the heir to the current Dalai Lama, planted its own heir to Dalai Lama, the Tibetan people will in all likelihood look forward to the next most important spiritual leader in Tibetan culture, the Rinmpoche. By capturing Arunachal Pradesh and the monastery housing Rinmpoche, China will be able to have much more control over suppressing the Tibetan independance movement. In addition, a defeated India will be less likely to oppose an aggression by China in to Bhutan and Nepal.

In addition to the above, there could be some economic benefits to this whole process as well.

The claim by the author that a war with India may nationalize the nation, is not totally unfound. It may not be the primary reason, but it is a reason none the less. It will divert the attention of Chinese population and the world from Tibet, Urmuqi to a international conflict, there by allowing Chinese government to take corrective (read suppressive) measures in these parts.

The sad part is, India is ill prepared to prevent a territory occupation by China. I hope the Indian government and bureaucracy takes these threats seriously and go beyond the political rhetoric to ensure the pride and sovereignty of the nation is upheld.

Jai Hind

a comparison of the people in charge- India vs USA

I just wanted to jot down the credentials of the people in key posts in the two countries and give some food for thought for people to think about. I will update this as I find more information.

Robert Gates (Defense secretary of United States of America)

  • 26 years of active service in CIA
  • Ex US airforce
  • Ex National security council
  • Doctorate degree
  • President of Texas A&M University
  • Started career in US airforce

AK Antony (Defense Minister of India)

  • No Defense service experience
  • No Intelligence service experience
  • Bachelor of arts
  • started career as student leader in Kerala

Condoleezza Rice (State Secretary of United States of America)

  • PhD in Political Science
  • 4 year as National Security Advisor
  • Professor of Stanford University
  • Provost of Stanford University
  • Expert on Soviet affairs in Bush Senior’s term
  • Board of directors – Charles Schwab, Hewlett Packard, Chevron Corporation
  • Has a ship named after her- SS Condoleezza Rice

Shivraj Patil (Indian Home Minister)

  • BA, LLB
  • Member of Legislative assembly in Maharashtra was his first experience
  • No experience out side politics
  • No academic or defense credentials

and yet again!

This is my first ever blog entry. The reasons I did not venture in to the popular world of blogging were obvious (to me at least). First, I never considered myself a good writer (and I still hold by that belief). Second and more importantly, I believed the excellent writings on varied subjects available out there on the web and elsewhere renders it futile attempt to capture my thoughts (which I believe can vary from stupid to maverick) in words. However, this morning, as I read about the blasts in Bombay (yes, I choose to still call it Bombay as my way to protests s the dirty politicians who waste tax payer’s money in propaganda of name change for purely selfish and political reasons ) my blood boiled and emotions flooded like never before. The more I read and followed the news, more shaken I felt. It made me question myself as to what am I doing as a human and as a citizen of India to stop this inhuman round of insane violence which has hit India for reasons far beyond my understanding. The least I could come up was to express my thoughts and make them public. I am sure this writing will not change the world a bit, but at least it gives my selfish self to throw out some of the anger that is burdening my shoulders.

The why of terror: A few years ago, every time terror struck in India, with out a second thought any Indian would point fingers at Pakistan and Pakistani infiltrators with a motive of destabilizing the region and force India to soften its stance over the Kashmir issue. It used to sicken my mind to see how messed up humans in quest of political power can be that they will not hesitate to send murderers across the border and seek blood of common people.

As years passed, it became much more complicated to point out the source of terror. It is beyond my comprehension who the real enemy is now. Is it a single enemy or are we fighting the battle on many fronts. Is it politically motivated Pakistani insurgents, religiously brain washed Pakistani and Indian muslims, Hindu/Indian politicians trying to gain political advantage during election time, radically fcuked up Hindu extremists, Muslims taking revenge against Godhara, China supported and politically motivated radicals from north east India, mafia dons like Dawood wanting to take control over Mumbai and bollywood money by spreading anarchy? who is it? what is the motive? what do they demand? I have no answer to this question and this is what kills me more than any thing. The only thing I know is the people behind this have completely lost their mind and need to be stopped at all cost.

Where India fails: I will not be surprised if it turns out that it was a bunch of India politicians seeking to gain political advantage during election times who were direct or tacit supporters of these attacks. Even then, my mind refuses to believe that people sitting at the top positions- the Gandhis, the Advanis, the Scindias, can be a part of this. However, I have no doubt that these people who some how have managed to be at the Helm of a huge nation like India have miserably failed in their duties. Being in power is the single most goals of these   creatures (I don’t want to call them human and could not find a better word). How can a man with soul continue to hold the post of home minister (read state secretary) when during his tenure the country has been attacked more than three times. Shame on shivraj patil who has no moral right to continue to be in his post. How can a prime minister or chief minister try to value life by making first statements after the attacks and deaths announcing there will be X amount of rupees given to the relatives of deceased and injured. That is like saying, OK, you died, we will pay for your death and rest continue with their business.  The people at the helm of the country are morally bankrupt. The people who vote them in are as much a partner in crime.

What the politicians need to do: I classify Indian politicians in two categories and this is purely my perception. I can not read any body’s mind, so this interpretation is purely based on public image they portray. I classify them as scumbags and loosers. Under the category of scumbags come people like mayavati, mulayam singh yadav, jayalalita, arjun singh, karunanidhi, deve gowda, digvijay singh, amar singh,dp yadav, lalu yadav, bal thakre and many many more. The choice of not using capital letters for their names is a deliberate attempt to show my disgust against them.  These creatures are classified as scumbags as they in my view are active criminals with murder charges, rape charges, bribes, corruption, nepotism and criminal mind. These are the people who have destroyed India more than any one else by utterly misusing power and with only goal to be in power and make money even if it comes at the cost of sacrificing human life, national security, and communal integrity. I have absolutely no respect for them and no expectations from them either. The second category of politicians is that of loosers. In this category come people like Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Jyotiraditya Scindia, LK Advani, Rajnath Singh, etc who appear to be educated and sensible people. They are loosers because they are charismatic leaders who can generate mass support if they choose to. Instead they shut eyes to the activities which the scumbags pursue and allow them to be a part of their community. It is the people belonging to this second category who make me feel sorry for them because they choose the wrong path in-spite of the capabilities they have and do nothing about saving the country from the hands of brutal rapists. I would really like to see the loosers break the barriers and step up to lead the country in moving out of the chaos it is finding it self in. There may not be an easy or guaranteed solution to our sufferings, but it will be a step in the right direction if these politicians who have some ability to do something unite against the corrupt and make sure that they have a front which stands against the dark side of the Indian polity. Even if this means not being in power, so be it because its better to be a morally upright opposition than to be on the same side as the evil.

Equally important is to separate the nationally important posts like that of a defense minister, home minister, finance minister, foreign minister from the elected members of parliament. What you want in these posts are specialists who can make the right decisions by virtue of their experience. An army general, suits the best for the post of defense minister, an uptight, trained and honest IPS officer fits the role of a home minster and an experienced finance expert/ economist will in all probability do a far better role than a clueless shivraj patil, a challenged and corrupt sharad pawar and a near dead arjun singh. This will require an amendment in the constitution but will make sure that the people at helm are accountable and well equipped to do the job. A similar change is needed at the state level government where people incharge of key posts should be appointed for their credentials rather than just picked for politically motivated reasons.

The police force: In my view the Indian state police is a force of 17th century. The problem lies at the very grassroot level. The lowest ranked police officer (who is called a constable, a reminiscent of  the british era) is usually a barely educated (usually 10th grade pass) individual, typically coming from a rural back ground, with a single minded goal of self survival. The selection is based on chest dimension, height and offcourse with under the table exchange of green bucks.  No attempt is made to gauge the mental aptitude, feeling of patriotism and responsibility towards society in the candidates. It takes no time for these individuals to become corrupt, dishonest, inhuman and even physically unfit for the role. They become a matter of national shame as was seen in Tamilnadu a few weeks before the bomb blasts when a bunch of cops watched with no regret a student of Ambedkar college beaten almost to death by lawless hooligans of the same college. These undertrained, immoral and clueless cops also find themselves indecisive and sluggish when the terrorist attack the nation. There were reports where witnesses reported the police acting too late in response to the attack on Mumbai hotels.  It is imperative that the police forces in India undergo a major overhaul and take the lead from the Indian defense forces.  A nation which spends unbelievable amount of money in holding elections and paying its corrupt politicians (and yes, tonnes of pension too) can step up and make sure that high standards are used in selecting the lowest ranked police officers, that they are well trained, well equipped with high end equipments and devices like NVD, automatic weapons, fast response vehicles, better communication infrastructure and a strong detective unit. A mechanism similar to what defence forces use in selecting officers via the NDA exam which involves thorough academic and behavioral tests should be devised for selecting police officers too. On top of it, the police must keep up by being proactive in training and undergoing a lot of mock/situational tests.  Under trained, uneducated constables at the helm of national security is just not an answer.

We the people: Having criticised the law makers and enablers, I think ultimately the responsibility is in the hands of we as Individuals to make sure that the society we live in is a safe place to live. We can not shrug off our responsibility by leaving the country in such a disarray that our own kids hate us in future for not doing any thing and letting things go out of hand. If we can not make the society a safe place to live, we have no right to produce off springs and let them suffer the misery. What happened in someone else’s house today is surely going to happen some day to our home too. We can choose to be proactive in making sure the fire not spreads any more or leave the fate in hand of the soul less terrorists.  A free society with no communal or religious bias is the only way to peacefully coexist. Suppression of minorities is one of the major reason which leads to communal hatred. Hindus, Muslims, Christians and individuals of every faith must break the shackles of religious dogma and see the world from fresh perspective. Religion was invented as a mechanism of social discipline and misused by power seekers. There is no place in the world to what I call absolute and radical religion. The decrees of fanatics and what was written centuries ago must be reevaluated  from a modern perspective and if required abandoned all together. I am personally athiest but I totally agree with the Buddhist spiritual leader- the Dalai Lama who has time and again said that what is in the scriptures must be seen in light of modern realities. I call upon my fellow individuals and believers of all faith to think from a scientific mind and seek an approach for peaceful coexistence.

As a democratic society and as a part of electoral, it is our duty that we choose the right people at the helm and be aware of the fact that Indian electoral system allows one to go to a polling booth and cancel the vote (yes, cancel the vote) if you find none of the candidates worthy enough of your vote. If the number of cancelled votes is more than those obtained by any of the candidate, the election for that seat is re held. A few incidents like this will force political parties to choose candidate worth it.

At times, we Indians get on with the life a little too soon after incidents like the terror attacks. It is very important to show your disapproval against the dark side and also against the system. Small gestures like wearing a black arm band, a day’s community fast, non cooperation, refusing to celebrate national festivals can go a long way in making sure people at the top know that you are unhappy about the situation.

At last, You become as small as your controlling desires and as great as your dominant aspirations. I aspire for a peaceful India and a peaceful world. I hope you do the same